How do we measure whether urban mobility systems are moving towards antifragility? By establishing clear states of equilibrium.

Urban mobility systems are increasingly exposed to recurrent and compound disruptions that degrade performance and undermine equity. This deliverable develops a theoretical equilibrium framework for antifragile urban mobility, comprising two complementary components: a strategic Target-Setting Model that estimates a time-varying antifragility factor, and a three-layer operational equilibrium that couples traffic assignment and modal choice with infrastructure and service response.

The framework provides well-specified algorithms and assumptions to support sensitivity analysis and policy design for antifragile, equitable, and efficient urban mobility.

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(Pending approval from the European Commission)

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AntifragiCity is a Horizon Europe project rethinking urban mobility across Europe. Bringing together 13 partners in 8 countries, we are designing systems that don’t just recover, but adapt, improve, and grow stronger through disruption.

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101203052. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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