About AntifragiCityPaving the way to antifragile urban mobility systems in Europe
Cities today are increasingly affected by a wide range of environmental, social, technological, and economic stressors — from extreme weather to global pandemics and supply chain disruptions. Traditional resilience strategies that aim to restore the status quo after a disruption are no longer enough.
Decentralisation
Adaptive and dynamic transport systems
Modularity and scalability
Diversity and flexibility in transport modes
Resilient urban planning
Informed distributed decision-making
Cities must move beyond resilience and embrace antifragility.
This approach enables urban systems not just to recover, but to learn, adapt, and improve, particularly in the way they manage urban mobility, which is AntifragiCity’s focus.
Our approach will not only enhance mobility resilience but also drive continuous improvement, resulting in more reliable and robust transportation networks.
Objectives and ambition
AntifragiCity will support a new approach to urban mobility governance — one that enables cities to understand and monitor their daily operations, detect and characterise stressors, evaluate social responses and public acceptance, and make informed decisions in real-time.
Open-source specification for resilience, monitoring and evaluation
Develop a flexible API to model transport flows, user behaviours, and social responses — enabling continuous monitoring and adaptation of urban mobility systems.
Engage stakeholders in establishing a social baseline and ensuring public acceptance
Use participatory methods to understand public attitudes, model social responses, and co-create an Antifragile Urban Mobility Manifesto.
Crisis anticipation and characterisation
Create a structured urban event ontology to better detect, interpret, and respond to disruptions in (near) real time.
Undertake a social study on system equity outcomes
Evaluate who benefits from mobility interventions, and assess social, environmental, and health impacts to ensure fairness and long-term value.
Develop planning recommendations to improve transport safety and resilience
Provide data-driven guidance for suburban planning and housing developments to align with future mobility demands and Vision Zero goals.
Deliver a crisis urban mobility triage decision support system
Develop a decision support system based on mobility triage to deliver real-time, adaptive responses to disruptions and promote safer mobility choices.
Antifragile solution design for traffic control
Develop adaptive traffic control strategies that can learn from historical patterns and adapt to future conditions and disruptions.
Each of these objectives contributes to a comprehensive framework for more adaptable, equitable, and resilient urban mobility — paving the way for long-term transformation in European cities.
Our methodology
We follow a six-stage methodology designed to help cities move beyond resilience and build truly adaptive and antifragile urban mobility systems. Our process turns complex urban data into actionable insights that support both real-time responses and long-term planning.
1
Define the scope and data availability across urban systems
We identify the scope and availability of data crucial for creating a reliable baseline of the urban environment.
2
Develop a semantic conceptualisation of urban systems
We then conceptualise the data using advanced semantic models, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the interdependencies within urban systems.
3
Determine interdependent factors influencing city system dynamics
We examine these models to identify potential weaknesses and failure points, ensuring that the system is antifragile and capable of evolving in response to new challenges.
4
Build a holistic and dynamic urban analytical modelling environment
A holistic model brings together real-time and historical data to simulate stress scenarios and assess the impact of potential disruptions.
5
Deliver managed city systems with decision-making capability
We develop an urban mobility decision support system (DSS) that supports (near) real-time responses through mobility triage and scenario-based interventions.
6
Explore and devise adapted business models
Scalable and sustainable models are created to ensure the approach can be adopted by other cities and integrated into their policies and planning.
AntifragiCity will help cities across Europe shift from recovering after disruptions to continuously improving urban mobility systems through antifragile strategies. By testing these solutions in four pilot sites — Bratislava, Larissa, Odesa, and Thessaloniki — we will demonstrate how cities can use real-time data, adaptive tools, and citizen engagement to turn stress into strength. The insights gained will support more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient mobility planning across Europe.