Why do traffic disruptions have such extreme effects on urban mobility? Road transportation networks are fundamentally fragile. Our new publication provides a rigorous mathematical proof of the fragility of road transportation networks, demonstrating that performance loss increases exponentially as disruptions grow linearly in magnitude.
Major cities worldwide experience problems with the performance of their road transportation networks, and the continuous increase in traffic demand presents a substantial challenge to the optimal operation of urban road networks and the efficiency of traffic control strategies.
Based on established traffic flow theory, specifically the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD), the study conducts a rigorous mathematical analysis to theoretically prove the fragile nature of road transportation systems. The research proposes a skewness-based indicator that can be readily applied to cross-compare the degree of fragility for different networks, based on MFD-related parameters.
A numerical simulation calibrated with real-world network data bridges the gap between theoretical proof and practical operations, with results showing the reinforcing effect of higher-order statistics and stochasticity on network fragility.
This work demonstrates the fragility of road transportation networks and guides researchers toward adopting antifragile design methods for future networks and traffic control strategies, a key objective of AntifragiCity.
*Published in Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. Elsevier Ltd.
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AntifragiCity is a Horizon Europe project rethinking urban mobility across Europe. Bringing together 13 partners in 8 countries, we are designing systems that don’t just recover, but adapt, improve, and grow stronger through disruption.
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